We’re doing things a bit differently this time. Rather than compiling rankings from our throng of reporters and experts, we’re using this edition to unveil the first set of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ratings. Each team’s rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected wins: 10.3
Chance to make playoffs: 80.3 percent
2. New Orleans Saints
Projected wins: 10.1
Chance to make playoffs: 76.9 percent
3. Los Angeles Rams
Projected wins: 10.1
Chance to make playoffs: 76.4 percent
4. New England Patriots
Projected wins: 10.5
Chance to make playoffs: 85.8 percent
5. Indianapolis Colts
Projected wins: 9.2
Chance to make playoffs: 57.9 percent
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Projected wins: 8.8
Chance to make playoffs: 49.7 percent
7. Chicago Bears
Projected wins: 9.1
Chance to make playoffs: 55.6 percent
8. Houston Texans
Projected wins: 8.5
Chance to make playoffs: 44.2 percent
9. Atlanta Falcons
Projected wins: 8.4
Chance to make playoffs: 41.8 percent
10. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected wins: 9.4
Chance to make playoffs: 66.5 percent
11. Minnesota Vikings
Projected wins: 8.5
Chance to make playoffs: 44.8 percent
12. Green Bay Packers
Projected wins: 8.6
Chance to make playoffs: 46.8 percent
13. Tennessee Titans
Projected wins: 8.0
Chance to make playoffs: 35.1 percent
14. Seattle Seahawks
Projected wins: 8.4
Chance to make playoffs: 41.2 percent
15. Cleveland Browns
Projected wins: 8.8
Chance to make playoffs: 51.5 percent
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected wins: 8.5
Chance to make playoffs: 45.8 percent
17. Baltimore Ravens
Projected wins: 8.5
Chance to make playoffs: 44.9 percent
18. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected wins: 7.6
Chance to make playoffs: 26.8 percent
19. Dallas Cowboys
Projected wins: 8.4
Chance to make playoffs: 44.2 percent
20. Carolina Panthers
Projected wins: 7.7
Chance to make playoffs: 27.9 percent
21. San Francisco 49ers
Projected wins: 7.6
Chance to make playoffs: 26.7 percent
22. Denver Broncos
Projected wins: 7.0
Chance to make playoffs: 18.0 percent
23. Oakland Raiders
Projected wins: 6.5
Chance to make playoffs: 11.7 percent
24. Detroit Lions
Projected wins: 7.0
Chance to make playoffs: 17.4 percent
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected wins: 6.4
Chance to make playoffs: 10.1 percent
26. New York Jets
Projected wins: 7.2
Chance to make playoffs: 21.3 percent
27. Buffalo Bills
Projected wins: 6.7
Chance to make playoffs: 14.3 percent
28. Washington Redskins
Projected wins: 6.2
Chance to make playoffs: 10.0 percent
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected wins: 6.0
Chance to make playoffs: 7.8 percent
30. New York Giants
Projected wins: 6.3
Chance to make playoffs: 10.2 percent
31. Arizona Cardinals
Projected wins: 5.5
Chance to make playoffs: 4.3 percent
32. Miami Dolphins
Projected wins: 5.6
Chance to make playoffs: 5.0 percent
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